Indonesia Conference Directory

Corresponding Author
AYU SINTA SAPUTRI

Institutions
University of Wijaya Kusuma Surabaya, Ministry of Trade

Abstract
As tariff has been declined, Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) become significantly important to supercede tariff role on protecting domestic industry. In APEC countries, between 2000-2015, the use of NTMs has increased by 413% from only 3,165 NTMs to 16,238 NTMs with average growth at 10.8% per year. The most prominant NTMs is technical measures mostly on SPS and TBT accounted for 80% in 2015 compared to other measures. The ability to comply SPS and TBT determines their ability to penetrade market access. To overcome the negative impact of NTMs, some countries are establishing an economic cooperation with other countries so for Indonesia. This study seeks to identify the most potential Indonesias FTA/CEPA partners from regulatory distance perspective. The study utilizes Regulatory Distance analysis in 10 Indonesian CEPA/FTA partners. Analysis shows that the most potential Indonesias FTA/CEPA partners are Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand. This is indicated by the low value of Regulatory Distance approximately at 0.33 (lower is better) implies that about 33% of total NTMs measures implemented on Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand are different with Indonesia NTMs. In contrast, the least potential FTA/CEPA partners for Indonesia are Philippines, Australia, and US market as indicated by high value of Regulatory distance at 0.70 implies that 70% of NTMs imposed by Indonesia is different with those countries. Therefore it is important for Indonesia to address NTMs issues when negoatiates its economy cooperation, particularly with Australia, and US.

Keywords
Non-Tariff Measures; Regulatory Distance Analysis; Free Trade Agreement

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/qrKAUyevxc97

Corresponding Author
Yoga Dwi Nugroho

Institutions
Politeknik Statistika STIS

Abstract
The Industrial Revolution 4.0 was a logical revolution of the previous industrial revolution. The Industrial Revolution 4.0 is made with automation and Internet use from things that can provide improvements in many sectors. One of them is the manufacturing industry sector. The manufacturing industry is the leading sector that must receive attention, especially in terms of policy. Spatial oriented policies (agglomeration) can be used to implement good policies, especially through agglomeration analysis. Agglomeration analysis used the Hoover Balassa Index (HBI) with an emphasis on labor growth in districts in Java. The existence of this agglomeration will cause differences in the growth of labor which will then be sought for the determinant. So that static panel data analysis will be used with the Fixed Effect Model SUR model. The dependent variable used is the manufacturing industry workforce. The independent variables used are wages, company efficiency, number of companies, industry competition index, import content, industrial revolution dummy 4.0 and agglomeration dummy. Agglomeration analysis shows that there are two agglomeration poles, namely, the western end and the east end of Java Island. There are six independent variables that are significant as determinants of labor growth, namely, wages, company efficiency, number of companies, industry competition index, industrial revolution dummy 4.0 and agglomeration dummy.

Keywords
Agglomeration, HBI, Panel, Revolution of Industry 4.0

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/HTrpAtvVBQfU

Corresponding Author
Indraswari Puruwita

Institutions
a) Politeknik Statistika STIS
Jalan Otto Iskandardinata 64C, Jakarta Timur 13330, Indonesia
*15.8665[at]stis.ac.id
b) Politeknik Statistika STIS
Jalan Otto Iskandardinata 64C, Jakarta Timur 13330, Indonesia
siskarossa[at]stis.ac.id

Abstract
Indonesia is one of the top ten countries with the largest forest area in the world and potentially to become the largest forest products exporter in the world. Wood and articles of wood are the only forest product commodities that are included in the ten export commodities with the largest share in 2017, reaching 34%. Plywood provides the largest share of wood and articles of wood, reaching 42% in 2017. Since 2000, Indonesia is no longer a major exporter of world plywood, and the plywood exports volume tends to decline until 2017. Besides, it is indicated that some large plywood exports are still illegal, which are generally of inferior quality. It can subsequently have an impact on the competitiveness of Indonesian plywood. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian plywood and assess the factors that affect Indonesian plywood exports to three major trading partners (Japan, South Korea, and the United States) over the period 2000 to 2017. The method used is the Common Effect Panel Model with cross-section weighted. Based on the results, it can be concluded that production and GDP do not affect the Indonesian plywood export significantly, while REER, RCA, and trade openness affect the Indonesian plywood export significantly. The policy recommendation is to enhance partnerships between exporters and timber farmers (especially those with limited capital) to increase production. As well as increasingly tightening the Timber Verification and Legality System (SVLK) so that importers do not doubt the quality of Indonesian plywood.

Keywords
Plywood export; Common effect model with cross-sectional weighted; competitiveness

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/QnFYamzfjVJT

Corresponding Author
Fitriani -

Institutions
Departement of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Brawijaya, Malang. Indonesia

Abstract
This study aims to analyze the determinants of exports and the spatial linkages of frozen shrimp and Indonesian fresh shrimp. This research uses gravity model analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The data used are panel data for the 2007-2017 period in 23 countries for frozen shrimp and 6 countries for fresh shrimp. The empirical findings from this study indicate that competitiveness, logistical performance, population, and exchange rates have a significant positive effect on frozen shrimp exports, while fresh shrimp exports are significantly affected by economic distance, population, rates, exchange rates, and FTAs. The morans I index results in exports of frozen shrimp and fresh shrimp indicate a negative spatial autocorrelation.

Keywords
Export, Fresh and Frozen Shrimp, Gravity Model, Spatial Autocorrelation

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/dKEYUufhCAmc

Corresponding Author
Aulia Niky Pinandhita

Institutions
a) Statistics Of Kapuas Regency, Tambun Bungai Street No. 15, Kuala Kapuas 73514, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia
b) Politeknik Statistik STIS, Otto Iskandardinata Street No.64C, Jatinegara, East Jakarta 13330, Indonesia

Abstract
Indonesia economic resilience is in a vulnerable condition amid the high global economic challenges. For this reason, there is a need for a strategy to improve the economy sustainably, one of which is through increasing and stabilizing exports. However, so far the Indonesian export market has only been concentrated in the main destination countries (traditional countries) such as the United States, Japan and the European Union, which causes export performance to be unstable due to the economic shocks experienced by these destination countries. This happened in rubber tire products, from 2001-2016 exports increased but tended to be unstable. So that to increase and stabilize rubber tire exports, we can do market expansion (diversification) to potentially non-traditional countries (besides the main export destination countries). The study aims to identify non-traditional countries that have the potential to diversify the export market of rubber tire derivative products using the Export Product Dynamic (EPD) analysis and analyze the variables that affect rubber tire exports to non-traditional countries in 2001-2016 using panel data regression. The results showed that potential non-traditional countries for the diversification of the car tire export market were Brazil, the Philippines, Canada, Mexico and Egypt, for bus tires and lorries were the Philippines and Mexico, while bicycle tires were the Philippines and Egypt. Variable GDP per capita, export prices of rubber tires and economic distance affect the export volume of rubber tires. While the real exchange rate and the export volume of rubber tires apart from Indonesia have no effect.

Keywords
export diversification, rubber tire derivative products, non-traditional markets, EPD, panel data regression

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/CPfVXvWEaprB

Corresponding Author
Neli Agustina

Institutions
Statistics of Kapuas Regency, Central Kalimantan and Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jakarta

Abstract
Indonesias economic resilience is in a vulnerable condition amid the high global economic challenges. For this reason, there is a need for a strategy to improve the economy sustainably, one of which is through increasing and stabilizing exports. However, so far the Indonesian export market has only been concentrated in the main destination countries (traditional countries) such as the United States, Japan and the European Union, which causes export performance to be unstable due to the economic shocks experienced by these destination countries. This happened in rubber tire products, from 2001-2016 exports increased but tended to be unstable. So that to increase and stabilize rubber tire exports, we can do market expansion (diversification) to potentially non-traditional countries. The study aims to identify non-traditional countries that have the potential to diversify the export market of rubber tire derivative products using the Export Product Dynamic (EPD) analysis and analyze the variables that affect rubber tire exports to non-traditional countries in 2001-2016 using panel data regression. The results showed that potential non-traditional countries for the diversification of the car tire export market were Brazil, the Philippines, Canada, Mexico and Egypt, for bus tires and lorries were the Philippines and Mexico, while bicycle tires were the Philippines and Egypt. Variable GDP per capita, export prices of rubber tires and economic distance affect the export volume of rubber tires. While the real exchange rate and the export volume of rubber tires apart from Indonesia have no effect.

Keywords
export diversification, rubber tire derivative products, non-traditional markets, EPD, panel data regression

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/zwpQXkanKC2N

Corresponding Author
AYU SINTA SAPUTRI

Institutions
Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia
Jl. M. I. Ridwan Rais No.5, Gambir, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia
*choirin.nisaa[at]gmail.com

Abstract
Indonesias trade performance in 2018 experienced a deficit of USD 3,8 Billion, due to increasing of oil and gas imports. Countertrade scheme is proven as one way to improve the trade balance for country who experienced trade balance deficit through increasingnon-oil and gas exports channel. This study aims to identify the non-traditional trading partners as well as the products that are potential to be selected as non-oil and gas export destination for Indonesia through countertrade scheme. This study utilizes trade performance index and the composite index analysis using different criterias when applied to select country and products. The results shows that there are six potential countries include Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Qatar, Angola, Azerbaijan and the United Arab Emirates. On the product side, Electronic and coal are the common potential products to be proposed through countertrade scheme as that products arepotential in all selected countries. There are another eight potential products for six countries that are selected, include machinery, jewelry, cigarettes, dairy products, processed fruits, mollusks, vegetable materials, automotive, synthetic rubber, processed oily grains, processed fruits, coffee beans, CPO & derivatives, pearls, processed fats & animal / vegetable oils, ash and metal scraps, precious metals, rice, salt, and sulfur and lime.

Keywords
countertrade, trade performance index, composite index

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/ry7KhntPZUeu

Corresponding Author
Dede Yoga Paramartha

Institutions
(a) STIS Statistics Polytechnic, Jalan Otista Raya 64C, Jakarta Timur 13330, Indonesia
*15.8557[at]stis.ac.id
(b) STIS Statistics Polytechnic, Jalan Otista Raya 64C, Jakarta Timur 13330, Indonesia

Abstract
The era of the industrial revolution requires extra handling if you want to compete well in it. In focusing on determining the right policy, it certainly requires an indicator that is able to answer the needs of my policy. The need that the Indonesian government usually wants is spatial mapping, given that Indonesia has a high heterogeneous level. In entering the era of industrial revolution, the role of technology is certainly undeniable, thus it is necessary to have indicators to illustrate how ready Indonesia is to navigate the waves of technology. The strategy that can be combined with technological progress is the diversity of Indonesia itself. With the optimization of specialization and regional comparative advantage can trigger synergies that can be used as a basis in competing in the international trade market. Therefore, there needs to be an analysis of the effects of technology combined with specialization and regional comparative advantage of Indonesia. This can help in analyzing productivity or even other trading problems. Guided by the establishment of a competitiveness index and by utilizing spatial panel data modeling, this study is able to map the direct and indirect effects of these variables on an area. On the other hand, it can be seen how indicators improve competitiveness and not just trading volume.

Keywords
Comparative Advantage, Specialization, Technology, Spatial Panel Analysis

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/6gMaX9ANuDL7

Corresponding Author
Anni Syahdia Nasution

Institutions
a) Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jalan Otto Iskandardinata No. 64C, Jakarta Timur 13330, Indonesia
*14.7996[at]stis.ac.id
b) Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jalan Otto Iskandardinata No. 64C, Jakarta Timur 13330, Indonesia
ORCID: 0000-0002-8649-1626

Abstract
The implementation of Renewable Energy Directive (RED) policy on April 2009 by European Union(EU) received several responses from many countries, due to create non tariff barrier in international trade. RED(2009/28/EC) established an overall policy for the production and promotion of energy from renewable sources in the EU. It requires the EU to fulfil at least 20% of its total energy needs with renewables by 2020. One of the countries affected by RED policy is Indonesia. The EU includes Crude Palm Oil (CPO) as a nonenvironmentally friendly product on its RED. After this policy was set, Indonesia CPO exports to the EU fell from 275.162,425 metric tons(MT) to 236.653,661MT and the next month just 896,876 MT. This research purposes to analyze RED policy and its duration impact on Indonesias CPO exports. This research uses ARIMA Intervention to analyze monthly data of Indonesias CPO exports from January 2002 to December 2018 (before and after policy implementation) and forecast CPO export from Indonesia to EU for 2019 until 2020. It is obtained that RED policy gave an impact on declining of Indonesias CPO exports to the EU only two month after the policy was set. RED policy has a temporary effect because the government moves quickly to divert CPO export market to Asia region. Forecasting results show the volume of Indonesias CPO exports to the EU from January 2019 to 2020 will experience an upward trend. The lowest volume is in January 2020 (298.527MT) and the highest is in August 2020 (330.063MT)

Keywords
Renewable Energy Directive (RED), CPO, European Union, Indonesia, ARIMA Intervention

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/q7rCKV8h2cjY

Corresponding Author
Hesty Nurul Utami

Institutions
(a) Newcastle University Business School, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK
*h.n.utami2[at]newcastle.ac.uk
(b) School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

Abstract
The information and communication technology revolution has led to the adoption of technologies such as the internet for generating value for businesses. However, little is known about the role of e-commerce in value co-creation initiatives for agri-food SMEs and specifically its role in the collaboration of business actors and customers where the overall objective of generating benefits from the exchange process. This study addresses this gap. The transformation of fresh produce marketing in Indonesia, from a product-focused approach towards a customer-centric approach, was selected to explore value co-creation and its potential benefits, including the exchange of tangible resources, intangible resources and knowledge. The findings illustrate that e-commerce involves fewer intermediaries in the food chain by facilitating the engagement of multiple stakeholders and provides a solution to address market needs through collaboration within the agribusiness networks. Co-creation via e-commerce channels reveals the benefits for agribusiness actors through economic, cognitive, social and marketing benefits. Benefits of co-creation for consumers include economic, cognitive, social and psychological benefits. The findings provide insights into the co-creation concept in an agri-food context through an online platform for B2B and B2C, that will have a theoretical and practical use for future business and marketing.

Keywords
value co-creation, value network, fresh produce marketing, e-commerce, market transformation

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/PWJ4zdVh8pgG

Corresponding Author
HARI SOESANTO

Institutions
Human Resources Development Agency of DKI Jakarta Province

Abstract
This study aims to build a conceptual model of an adaptive strategic food commodity management system held in the scope of the regional government using the Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) approach. The use of this method is based on the fact that strategic food management in the implementation of the regional government is messy, ill-structured, complex and multidimensional therefore it requires a systemic and holistic approach, one of which is through SSM. The use of an adaptive strategic food commodity management system is very important as an effort to integrate strategic food commodity data which have been scattered in various stakeholders. Moreover, by using information technology, the system can optimize the best distribution chain of strategic food commodity in the region of Indonesia. However, research related to the use of the SSM approach in managing strategic food commodity using information technology to face global trade competition is still limited. The need to integrate data from strategic food commodity stakeholders is expected to be able to produce the best scheme that is adaptive to dynamic changes to face global trade competition.

Keywords
strategic food commodity, global trade, soft systems methodology

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/bXwnkevVmU84

Corresponding Author
Rahayu Ningsih

Institutions
a) Ministry of Trade
Center for Domestic Trade Analysis
Jl. M.I.Ridwan Rais No.5, Jakarta, Indonesia
*rahayuningsih75[at]gmail.com
b) Departement of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia

Abstract
The potential of digital economy in Indonesia in 2025 is predicted to provide added value up to USD 115 billion. Meanwhile, the adoption of e-commerce by SMEs in Indonesia is still limited. Based on survey of Indonesian E-Commerce Association (IdEA), less than 16 percent of SMEs utilize the marketplace to sale their products. This study aims to analyze factors that influence SMEs in marketing their products through e-commerce. The unit analysis of this study was the SMEs in Yogyakarta. The method of analysis was by using the Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA). By considering internal and external factors that influenced SMEs, It was found that the main factors inhibits SMEs to adopt e-commerce are the lack of knowledge about the marketplace and the ability to look over the market opportunities through digital media. For this reason, It is important to provide business incubator model that is integrated with a training system, mentorship, and access to financing and marketing for SMEs.

Keywords
SME, e-commerce, marketplace, Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA)

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/ZQrVwMcbD9Px

Corresponding Author
REGITA HIKMATUZ ZAKIA

Institutions
a) Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jl. Otista No 64C, Jakarta Timur 13330
*15.8839[at]stis.ac.id
b) Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jl. Otista No 64C, Jakarta Timur 13330
siskarossa[at]stis.ac.id

Abstract
Gold is one of the precious metals. Gold, which is processed in the form of bars and jewelry, is one of the most desirable investment items of the world community. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia is the highest gold producer, and Singapore has become the main destination for Indonesian gold exports since 2014. The volume of Indonesian gold exports to Singapore increased eightfold compared to 2013. At the same period, Singapore which is not a gold producer is one of the top 10 countries with the highest gold export value in the world, while Indonesias possition is left behind Singapore. This study aims to analyze the variables that affect the volume of Indonesian gold exports to Singapore in 2006-2017. The analytical method used is the Error Correction Mechanism. The results showed that in the short term there were significant effects of Indonesian gold production, Singapore FDI, and the previous gold exports volume on Indonesian gold exports volume to Singapore, while the exchange rate and world gold prices have no significant effect. The policy recommendation is government support in stimulating the establishment of national gold refining and manufacturing industry to increase profits by exporting value-added products through infrastructure and high technology support. This is because most of the gold exported to Singapore is raw gold. The government should encourage the refining and gold manufacturing industries by implementing the Good and Service Tax elimination. Besides, regulations need to be made to avoid excessive exploitation of gold due to high demand from Singapore.

Keywords
gold export, international trade, ECM

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/xtyHKADTrPYW

Corresponding Author
Aditya Rangga Yogatama

Institutions
a) Center for Strategic Issues Management, the Ministry of Trade
Jl. M.I. Ridwan Rais No. 5, Central Jakarta 10110, Indonesia
* ytc.yoga[at]gmail.com

Abstract
A countrys sophistication of production and exports is important for economic transformation. Sophisticated production is generally associated with higher productivity, which in turn can lead to higher income and improved welfare. Skills improvement is a key channel through which export can affect production, export sophistication, and income. This paper aims to examine the effect of exports to developed countries on the export sophistication of ASEAN 5 countries and relatively shows Indonesias position towards other ASEAN 5 countries in terms of export sophistication. The method we used is fixed effect panel data model by using the UNCTAD advanced country diversification index as dependent variable, which measures the similarity of exports with exports of developed countries. Empirical results show that exports to developed countries are associated with higher export sophistication. The export sophistication of Indonesia is relatively low compared to other ASEAN 5 countries, which is still below Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. This paper suggests that the Indonesian government needs to encourage Indonesian exporters to increase exports to developed countries in order to enhance their productivity and product quality, which in turn will increase Indonesias exports.

Keywords
Destination of exports; Export sophistication; ASEAN-5

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/JRU9yLQ8zbT3

Corresponding Author
Sevi Oktafiana Fortunika

Institutions
Institut Pertanian Bogor

Abstract
Indonesia is the largest coffee producer in the world after Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia. One of the mayor markets for Indonesian coffee is Japan. This paper, therefore, analyzed the position of Indonesian coffee, either green bean or roasted coffee in Japan. The linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) model was used to estimate a system of expenditure share equations for Indonesian coffee and its competitors. Time series data from 1996 to 2017 were obtained for the analysis. Empirical results indicated that most of the slope coefficients were statistically significant and in accordance with microeconomic theory. The significant independent variables of green bean were the price of vietnamese coffee, gross domestic product of Japan, and exchange rates of Japan to Indonesia. Then, the significant independent variables of roasted coffee were exchange rates of Japan to Indonesia, import tariffs and Sanitary and Phytosanitaryas as non tariff measures variable. It was known that tariffs and non tariffs measures effected the Indonesian coffee demand only on roasted coffee. The position of Indonesian coffee was determined by its demand elasticity (price elasticity, cross price elasticity, and expenditure elasticity). Indonesian green bean was found to be inelastic in Japanese market, but Indonesian roasted coffee was found to be elastic in Japanese market. Indonesian coffee substituted for Brazilian coffee and Colombian coffee, and complemented to Vietnamese coffee.

Keywords
Green bean, LA/AIDS, Non Tariff Measures, Roasted coffee, Tariffs

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/GD8F9AbMWBuC

Corresponding Author
Husnul Isa Harahap

Institutions
Department of Political Science Universitas Sumatera Utara

Abstract
A trade war is a conflict that occurs between two or more countries in the sector of trade. The conflict can be seen in the case of an increase in tariffs, or other obstacles made to disrupt the economic balance of a country, so that the country changes its economic policy or trade. One issue in trade wars is environmental issues. What are these issues? This study was conducted with a political ecology and political economy approach and data collection using library and internet. The findings of this study describe that there are three main environmental issues in a trade war. First, the issue of environmental harm. Issues on health standards on traded products. Third, human rights issues. The study also found that there were always double standards in trade political policies that tended to have a taste of trade wars.

Keywords
Trade war, environmental, political policy, double standards, diplomacy.

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/khD8t4VLaupe

Corresponding Author
AYU SINTA SAPUTRI

Institutions
Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia
Jl. M. I. Ridwan Rais No. 5, Gambir, Jakarta 10110, Indonesia
*ayusinta.saputri[at]gmail.com

Abstract
Wood and paper industry sector become the most heavily sector which has been charged with trade remedy in Indonesia mostly due to the implementation of log timber export ban policy. The implementation of this policy since 2012 has received many trade remedy allegations, particularly subsidy allegations by trading partner countries. This study aims to evaluate the log timber export ban policy and proposed alternative policies that could minimize the potential for alleged subsidies. The study used some different methodology included a normative juridical legal analysis based on the DS491 case study: US Coated Paper, regulatory impact analysis (RIA), and CGE Model to simulate the impact of trade remedy on Indonesian exports and the impact of alternative policies. The results shows that the imposition of trade remedy by partner countries has a negative impact on the export performance of Indonesian wood derivative products. Based on the DS491 case study, the log timber export prohibition policy concluded as a subsidy. While the impact of log timber ban export on financial contribution is still debatable. This study recommended that better alternative policy option that provide benefits in supporting forest sustainability and the continuity of downstream industries made from wood is to continue the log export ban by adjusting the legal text with WTO principle, namely conservation of natural resources in Article XX GATT 1944 (general exclusion) and clarifying that the control of forests by the government is not dominantly supporting the formation of domestic market prices.

Keywords
CGE, export policies, RIA, timber logs

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/Rqf4DybVxa3d

Corresponding Author
Kumara Jati

Institutions
(a)Indonesian Trade Promotion Center-Chennai-India, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia.
kumara_jati[at]yahoo.com

(b)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
yudi.fadilah[at]gmail.com

(c)Trade Analysis and Development Agency,
Ministry of Trade, Jakarta, Indonesia,
immanuel.lingga[at]gmail.com

Abstract
Corn and coffee are the two main export commodities that are important for the development and employment of workers in Indonesia. The appropriate export policy strategy is needed when the prices of export commodities fluctuate. The factors of the rainy and dry seasons are also relatively influential on price fluctuatuions which ultimately can be considered to be able to help in the strategy of increasing export. The model used in this study is Autoregresive and Moving Average and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity/Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA-ARCH/GARCH) with dummy variables. The data used are corn and coffee prices from Januari 2010 to December 2018. The ARMA-ARCH/GARCH model can help show the patterns of corn and coffee price movements during the rainy and dry seasons. The ARMA-ARCH/GARCH model with the dry season dummy variable significantly turns out to have more influence on the conditional variance of corn and coffee prices compared to the rainy season dummy variable. Relevant authorities related to export policies need to be able to provide specific strategies in the event of a long dry season because they can affect the fluctuations in corn and coffee prices. Increased the value added and a good commodity storage system can be a good strategy in dealing with price fluctuations due to bad seasons.

Keywords
Export Policy, Corn and Coffee Price, ARMA-ARCH/GARCH, Rainy and Dry Seasons.

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/Q7pwynHAUqru

Corresponding Author
AYU SINTA SAPUTRI

Institutions
University of Wijaya Kusuma Surabaya, Ministry of Trade

Abstract
Agricultural is important sector for Indonesian economy with 21.8% contribution to total non-oil and gas export in last 5 years, and grow at 1.9% annually. Agricultural products export is dominated by oil palm and its derivative contributed about 55% of total non-oil and gas export. It is observed that Indonesia agricultural products faces challenges in complying with stringent non-tariff measures (NTMs) imposed by importing countries, such as SPS and TBT. This article tries to address some NTMs issues on Indonesian agricultural export such as coverage ratio, regulatory distances, and the most prevalent NTMs on Indonesian agricultural export. The study utilizes coverage ratio indicator and regulatory distance analysis. The study shows that the ability of Indonesia for better market access on major trading partner depends on the ability to comply with SPS and TBT measures, shown by their high prevalent. However, coverage ratio average on Indonesian agricultural export is only 13% implies that NTMs policy on agriculture products imposed by Indonesian FTA/CEPA trading partners impacted only 13% of Indonesian agriculture products export to its FTA/CEPA trading partners. The regulatory distances between Indonesia and her agricultural export partners is 0.43 indicates that 43% of Indonesian NTMs on agriculture products are different with its main FTA/CEPA trading partners. Indonesia is encouraged to address NTMs issues with its FTA/CEPA trading partners, particularly on any stringent NTMs and procedural obstacles as they often burden exporter related to SPS and TBT implementation.

Keywords
Non-Tariff Measures; Regulatory Distance Analysis; coverage ratio

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/Vrp6fDMgANhw

Corresponding Author
Dikky Indrawan

Institutions
School of Business IPB University (Bogor Agricultural University), Jl. Raya Pajajaran, Babakan, Bogor Tengah, 16128, Indonesia

Abstract
Nowadays, one health awareness in the global value chain is increasing. Since, the threat of global occurrence of zoonotic diseases, and pathogens is higher due to global trade. Therefore, the trend of global food trade is driven by food security, sustainable agriculture, and healthy nutrition to foster the long-lasting well-being of the human population. However, food control and biosecurity as proactive and dynamic strategies were not having a clear aim between supporting producers or safeguarding consumers. These aims had a trade-off in policy impact resulting in possible lapses in food production and economic chaos. This paper aimed to describe the food control and biosecurity policy in the global value chain and its impact on global trade. We reviewed the literature on zoonotic diseases, and pathogens related to food production, biosecurity strategies and practices. Then, a comparative analysis was employed collated with the value chain governance to match its impact on supporting producers or safeguarding consumers. The results show that food control operational designs were inherently supported by biosecurity procedures. Moreover, the international regimes drove awareness, technical capacity and its impact on the policy dynamic in the global trade. The policy in Indonesia concerned more to support producers competitiveness in the global trade, while safeguarding consumers had less attention. This paper concluded that a more balanced policy is needed to implement food control and biosecurity in the global value chain.

Keywords
global trade, global value chain, chain governance, food control, biosecurity, one health, policy

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/PgNxFb3uApLU

Corresponding Author
Avif Haryana

Institutions
Center For Domestic Trade Analysis, Trade Center and Policy Agency, Ministry of Trade
*vifhary[at]gmail.com

Abstract
Inter regions price disparity of cement in Indonesia has negative impact on infrastructural development. One of ways to minimise the above impact is by proposing one price policy for cement commodity. This study aims to address barriers that will arise if a single price cement policy is implemented and propose policy to reduce cement prices disparity between regions. Questionnaires and Focus group Discussion (FGD) are the instruments to collect data. These data were analysed using Regulatory Impact Assesment (RIA). The study found that the cement price disparity only occurs in some remote and border areas where logistics facilities are far behind. Also, it was found that one price cement policy would be difficult to be implemented. The reasons were due to 6 barriers: (i) logistical costs from factories to consumers; (ii) differences in the policies for regulating freight transport that vary between regions; (iii) production centers in Java while consumption spread throughout Indonesia; (iv) ownership status of private cement factories; (v) limited and varied frequency of transportation of transportation modes; (vi) consumers perceptions of cement brands vary in each region. However, from the perspective of CBA of RIA approach, there are only two policies that need to be considered seriously, those are, regional targeted subsidy and ceiling regional retail price policies.

Keywords
cement, price disparity, one-price policy, cost and benefit analysis

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/Xb6zZY7jArML

Corresponding Author
Ngadi Ngadi

Institutions
Pusat Penelitian Kependudukan LIPI

Abstract
Indonesia and Japan have established cooperation in various fields including investment and export-import in the oil palm sector. This research aims to explore the cooperation of Japan-Indonesia in the oil palm sector mainly in export-import and investment. Indonesias palm oil exports to Japan are still low as 90 percent of demand for palm oil in Japan is imported from Malaysia. The total CPO export to Japan in 2016 was 241 tons with a value of 166,000 $US. While the export value of other palm oil is 200,823 tons with a value of 136.43 million US dollars. Various obstacles faced by entrepreneurs are mainly related to procedures for managing exports that take a long time. Some investments in the palm oil sector by Japan have also been carried out in Indonesia.

Keywords
Japan-Indonesia Cooperation; Oil Palm Sector; Export-Import; Invesment

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/C6KnBgTAtU74

Corresponding Author
Iwan Hermawan

Institutions
Research Center, Secretary General and Expertise Body of Indonesian House of Representative

Abstract
Indonesian digital economy is projected to become the largest in Southeast Asia, promising more jobs, and more consumer choices for an emerging tech-savvy generation. One of efforts to realize that path, Indonesia has signed the 10th Package of ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS). The commitment increases to trade in services cooperation for approximately 15 sub-sectors. However, the Indonesian readiness is highlighted by many parties, such as lack of human resources skill, poor infrastructure condition, and affordability uneven. So it is worrying that it would become a boomerang for national economic growth. The purpose of this study is to analyze Indonesian readiness for digital economy through trade in service in the ASEAN market. This study employs a quantitative approach with Gravity Model. The secondary data in the form of panel data period year 2014-2016 (annual) and includes ASEAN-6 countries. The variable digital economy readiness is a main explanatory variable interest and represented by networked readiness index. While the data sources come from Comtrade, IMF, World Bank, World Economic Forum, and Indonesian Ministry of Trade. The analytical method uses Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and it is resolved with software of Stata 13. Based on the interim results indicate that the level of Indonesian readiness for digital economy; includes infrastructure, affordability, and skills of human resources; would effect positively the flow of trade in services in the ASEAN market. Therefore, it is important for the Government of Indonesia to ensure that there are prerequisites that must be prepared in grabbing benefits of the momentum of the digitalization era.

Keywords
Trade, Service, Digitalization, Gravity Model

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/NvzfYpytF7ur

Corresponding Author
Asaduddin Abdullah

Institutions
School of Business IPB University, Jl. Raya Pajajaran, Babakan, Bogor Tengah, 16128, Indonesia

Abstract
A current change in green economy and sustainability perspective and policy has impacted the crude palm oil price in global trade. The CPO Price and volume of trade have been decreased, trapped and fluctuating in short price range. Thus, Indonesia CPO producers become unfavorable by foreign investment. The paper objective is to investigate the correlation between the daily closing price of CPO and CPO futures with the Stock Prices of Oil Palm Producers that listed in Jakarta Composite Index. We modelled market reaction based On Balance Volume and Bill Williams Market Facilitation Index. The model used the daily closing price of three major CPO producers stock of CPO and CPO futures (CPO F) for the period ranging from 2008 to 2018. Three simulation scenarios were performed to indicates simulated CPO price that give the best investment for CPO Producers Stocks. This study gave information for the policy maker to protect the Indonesian CPO industry.

Keywords

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/qktf4n8dLA2E

Corresponding Author
Darwin Simanjuntak

Institutions
Universitas Esa Unggul and Universitas Advent Indonesia

Abstract
The very core problems of the study are essential to determine the competitive marketing strategy of Furniture Enterprises. The study was generally using the descriptive method of research. Data were obtained by using a questionnaire ,and followed by an interview to obtain further opinions of each of the respondents. Relevant tables and matrices were generally presented to interpret and analyze the study. In addition, the percentage was used to compare the proportion of the frequencies of responses to the total number of responses to denote the order of importance of an item in the questionnaire. The study shows the following findings: living room sets, bedroom furnishings, dining room sets, chairs, tables, accessories, and decors are types of products produced. Quality of material used is a major factor of product attribute desired by the buyers. Lower prices, product quality, good design, and craftsmanship and on-time delivery are the competitive strategies of the products. Catalog, trade fairs, correspondence are more common methods of introducing the products to the buyers. United States of America, Australia, Japan, Sweden, England, Netherland, France, Germany, Canada, and the United Emirates Arab are major export destinations. Among the most severe problems are price control, unpredictable demand situation, and lack of market information. In addition, high interest rates and stringent collateral requirement prescribed by the financial institution and unfavorable tax rate was also reported as the severe problems as the result of government rules and regulations. Considering the significant contribution of the furniture industry to the economy, the government should continue to make the furniture industry as a priority industry. Reappraisal of present incentives toward the industry will have to be made. The government should help the industry to gather market information along with new design and technology and demands of the foreign market.

Keywords
Marketing Strategy, Customer Orientation, Furniture Industry

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/4cTHLg6eybuq

Corresponding Author
Maya Kuswaty

Institutions
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia

Abstract
Determining the price of the lower limit and the upper limit of chicken meat from breeders produces a dilemma for small-scale independent farmers. Because the price that appears on the market sometimes falls and is far from the reference price. In addition, the cost of production is also at the upper limit of the upper limit of prices, so that farmers scream in arranging price strategies to reduce production costs. Based on a descriptive study of several independent farmers, the pricing should be balanced with the day old chicken (DOC) price policy and animal feed that must be stable. Independent breeders hope that alternative policies will be presented in tackling the deterioration in market prices and tend to be more profitable for integrated livestock companies. Thus, there needs to be a review of the policies rolled out by the minister of trade in embracing independent farmers, traders and consumers so that the trading system is stable.

Keywords
regulation of the minister of trade, livestock, and price stability.

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/uPJDfCeK37N8

Corresponding Author
Immanuel Manurung

Institutions
a*) International Agribusiness and Rural Development, the University of Goettingen, Germany
b) Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, the University of Goettingen, Germany

Abstract
Over the past decade, there have been fluctuations in the global price of CPO. These variations in global CPO price are likely to affect the local CPO price as well. To overcome this, the Indonesian government has implemented an export tax on CPO in order to maintain stability in the business of the CPO producers. The aims of this research are to assess the market integration and the price transmission between the international CPO market and the domestic CPO market of Indonesia as well as the effects of the Indonesian export tax on the domestic and on the international prices. The analysis uses weekly prices and estimation of Error Correction Model as an analysis method. The results of analysis show that the domestic CPO market of Indonesia is integrated with the international market. The domestic CPO market in Indonesia responds to price fluctuations in international market. In addition, although the imposition of the export tax of CPO in Indonesia slightly reduces instability of the domestic CPO price, the overall influence is still small. It can be inferred that the policy is effective to increase government revenue as a fiscal instrument at the expanse of oil palm farmers and producers of CPO. In practice, even though the policy maker has attempted to reduce the dependency of the Indonesian CPO producers on the world market by creating a demand market, but the Indonesian government still need to optimize the policy under the new format of the export tax of CPO.

Keywords
CPO, ECM, Export Tax, Market Integration, Price Transmission

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/9aRgK32fPLWC

Corresponding Author
Khristian Edi Nugroho Soebandrija

Institutions
Industrial Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta, Indonesia 11480.
Emails: Knugroho[at]Binus.Edu and Khristian.Edi.Nugroho[at]gmail.com

Abstract
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCED) indicates that services have contributed two-thirds of Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As part of methodology, this paper elaborates trade policy analysis from perspectives of Business, Industrial and System Engineering (BISYE). The objective of this paper is to provide the utmost analysis for Indonesian Government, in particular Minister of Trade. The mentioned utmost analysis refers to the attempts to answer the question of Quo Vadis Indonesia? Precisely, how Indonesia implements Service Trade Policies in the future to cope with global competition among trilogy on Society 5.0 (SC 5.0), Hallyu 2.0 (HY 2.0) and Making Indonesia 4.0 (MI 4.0). In the future, the implementation of service trade policies become more challenging within digital transformation. In narrower attention, the challenges constitute the scope of macroeconomic outcomes, in which trends of manufacturing industry augments into services-dependent. As consequences, these trends enhances participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs). This paper expands its analysis based upon OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) that convey comprehensive regulations of service trade in 22 sectors across 44 countries. Ultimately as its extra mile analysis, this paper elaborates OECD and its STRI changes in Indonesia during Policy Reforms in Indonesia from 2014 until 2016. It is expected by having this ultimate extra mile analysis, this paper contributes to Indonesian Government, in particular Minister of Trade, including Policy makers in determining in the future on disruptive innovation in digital transformation and competitive service trade policies in global constellation toward Quo Vadis Indonesia.

Keywords
Trade Policy; Service Trade Policies; Services Trade Restrictiveness Index; Society 5.0; Hallyu 2.0; Making Indonesia 4.0

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/LFxTefKwBjEh

Corresponding Author
Dwi Wahyuniarti Prabowo

Institutions
Center for Domestic Trade Analysis, Trade Research and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade

Abstract
Inter-island trade data becomes one of the bases to formulate policy recommendations to maintain price stability and reduce price disparity across regions in Indonesia. However, inter-island trade data still not well recorded and managed. The purpose of this analysis is to measure the performance of the inter-island trade data collection process by Ministry of Trade and to identify problems of data collection. Important Performance Analysis (IPA) is utilized to measure the performance of inter-island trade data collection and Likert Scale is used for problems identification. The study found that in terms of importance is at the level of 3,25. While in terms of performance is at the level of 4,35. It can be interpreted that the level of performance is better than the level of importance, so in other words the process of inter-islands data collection is relatively effective. Meanwhile, the main problem in inter-island trade data collection are the lack of coordination between Ministries/Agencies, the policy that has not been well socialized, and there is no comprehensive format of inter-island trade data collection. For this reason, coordination and synchronization and further agreement is needed to develop a comprehensive inter-island trade database, and creating format of data collection.

Keywords
Inter-island Trade, Database, Trade

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/yp8uTMHfmEjt

Corresponding Author
Muhammad Rizal Taufikurahman

Institutions
(a) Trilogi University, Jl. Kampus Trilogi No.1 TMP Kalibata, Jakarta, 12760, Indonesia
*mrizalt[at]trilogi.ac.id
(b) Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kwik Kian Gie, Jl. Yos Sudarso Kav 87 Sunter, Jakarta, 14350, Indonesia

Abstract
At present, the world economy is in uncertainty. One reason is that two economically large countries, namely the United States (US) and China are in conflict and beat the drums of trade war. Relations between the two countries are increasingly heating up after President Trump officially started a trade war against China on July 6, 2018. This is indicated by the policy of US applying tariffs on a number of Chinese products, and then responded very quickly by China by implementing a reply tarriff. The aim of this study is to analyze the economic consequences of the US-China trade war for Indonesia and Indonesias strategies to respond to the trade war. The analytical method used is the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The results of the analysis show that the consequences or impact of the US-China trade war on the performance of macroeconomic indicators such as investment and consumption increased by 0.02% and 1.13%, respectively. Its just that for the added value obtained it decreases by 0.02%. This condition resulted in a decreasing of the national aggregate output amount to 0.01%. The declining in national output came from the decreasing in output in several industries such as the textile and textile products industry, yarn industry, apparel industry, and pulp and paper industries which were 2.11%, 1.61%, 1.32% and 0.36%, respectively. Some short-term strategies that need to be done are increasing export competitiveness, encouraging export-oriented industrial productivity, expanding and strengthening domestic and world markets, and controlling the amount of imports. Long-term strategies include the need to improve the quality of human resources in the trade and industry sectors, labor productivity, utilization of the results of research and development, and optimization of training and education institutions.

Keywords
economic consequences; strategies; US-China trade war; GTAP analysis

Topic
Trade policies strategic Responses

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/AeGKk3CrtuxY